Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season
Welcome (a bit early) Well, it's still 2011, but it's the official start of this forum... Not that anyone would care about it for now. I just felt like making it. =) Ryan1000 02:55, July 1, 2011 (UTC) Since the year has begun, why don't we make some pre- season forecasts? So, who's ready? I'll go with: SWIO: ' 14 disturbances, 12 depressions, 9 storms, 6 tropical cyclones, and 4 intense cyclones. '''Aus. Region: ' 15 tropical lows, 12 tropical cyclones, and 6 severe tropical cyclones. 'S. Pac: ' 18 disturbances, 17 depressions, 13 tropical cyclones, and 7 severe tropical cyclones. I'll make a mid-season forecast in February, and a late-season forecast in April. Andrew444 02:56, July 10, 2011 (UTC) SWIO betting Pools are open! SWIO Betting Pools. Cyclone10 17:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC) There's also betting pools for the entire SHem... ''Ryan1000'' 19:53, October 18, 2011 (UTC) : My bad for creating the betting pool.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 20:06, October 18, 2011 (UTC) : ...and now the SHEM cyclone seasons have started.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 20:55, October 31, 2011 (UTC) : The SWIO season begins in two days. Andrew444 (Talk) ( ) 22:03, November 13, 2011 (UTC) South-West Indian Ocean 90S.INVEST 90S.INVEST Low chance of development. But this looks pretty good. I woudn't be suprised if this forms fast.''10''''Q.'' 02:32, October 4, 2011 (UTC) Already? Getting a October storm is like getting an Atlantic storm in April! ''Hurricane Andrew (444)'' 22:18, October 4, 2011 (UTC) :It's up to medium chance. Yqt1001 00:16, October 5, 2011 (UTC) ::It's very usual. I wouldn't be suprised if Alenga forms here.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 01:03, October 5, 2011 (UTC) :::Gone.[[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 20:14, October 6, 2011 (UTC) 92S.INVEST 92S.INVEST We missed 91S already, and here's another one! Don't know how high the chance is because my browser (Google Chrome) can't load the JTWC page.[[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 00:06, October 24, 2011 (UTC) Gone.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 23:41, October 24, 2011 (UTC) 96S.INVEST 96S.INVEST TCFA issued. ''01F. '' 20:54, November 19, 2011 (UTC) Medium chance.Cyclone10Talk 02:31, November 23, 2011 (UTC) Low chance.Cyclone10 17:56, November 23, 2011 (UTC) Pretty much fell apart now. I guess we'll have to wait until December or a bit later. ''Ryan1000'' 02:44, November 24, 2011 (UTC) It has interacted with the ITCZ. ''01F. '' 00:06, November 27, 2011 (UTC) But still, it has a low chance.Cyclone10 00:53, November 27, 2011 (UTC) This invest is still here! ''13R. '' 12:53, November 30, 2011 (UTC) 97S.INVEST 97S. INVEST TCFA issued. ''01F. '' 20:54, November 19, 2011 (UTC) Which one's which? If this is the system threatening Madagascar as we speak, then i'd be surprised if we don't get our first storm out of this. It's been a really quiet SWIO season for most of 2011, particularly the first half of it. Overall, we didn't need more than Yasi, but Alenga could be a very painful start to 2011-12. ''Ryan1000'' 01:11, November 23, 2011 (UTC) 96S is the active one, this one is gone. ''01F. '' 01:43, November 23, 2011 (UTC) 02S.NONAME 98S.INVEST We have a new one here again. ''01F. '' 14:46, November 28, 2011 (UTC) High chance now...we might see a TD.Cyclone10 16:04, December 3, 2011 (UTC) A bit more thunderstorms near the LLCC would be perfect.Cyclone10 03:01, December 4, 2011 (UTC) And it couldn't...last TCFA issued.Cyclone10 16:47, December 4, 2011 (UTC) And back! Looks better than ever! TCFA Alert! '''Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 02:55,12/6/2011 The system got smaller too. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 03:21,12/6/2011 Tropical Cyclone 02S Now a tropical cyclone. Will be Benilde soon. 13R. '' 12:08, December 6, 2011 (UTC) Almost all the names in this basin for this year are women am i correct? Allanjeffs 12:55, December 6, 2011 (UTC) Yup. ''13R. '' 13:05, December 6, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Depression 02 Now a TD. ''13R. '' 14:12, December 6, 2011 (UTC) Hopfully it would be upgraded soon. '''Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 21:02,12/6/2011 This one would be named Benilde if it does become upgraded, but I don't personally think that will happen. This thing is heading southward and is falling apart as we speak. 'Ryan1000 00:01, December 7, 2011 (UTC) Last advisory by JTWC....guess Benilde isn't coming. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 13:12,12/7/2011 01S.ALENGA Tropical Cyclone 01S Is here. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 04:30,12/5/2011 Expected to come back to the Australia basin. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 04:38,12/5/2011 Tropical Storm Alenga Now a named tropical storm. 13R. '' 12:56, December 5, 2011 (UTC) Expected to become a tropical cyclone. '''Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 13:05,12/5/2011 : It might become a C1, but it won't be anything exceptional as far as i'm concerned, just a C1 peak and it may hit Australia in the long run. It isn't unheard of for storms to cross from the SWIO into the AUS region, but it is unheard of for storms to form here and hit Australia as full-blown hurricane-strength storms. If that happens, it would be a first with Alenga. 'Ryan1000 14:29, December 5, 2011 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Alenga Now a severe tropical storm with winds of 60 mph (10-min) and a central pressure of 989 mb. 13R. '' 15:37, December 5, 2011 (UTC) Now with 65 mph (10-min) and pressure reading of 982 mb. '''Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 22:57,12/5/2011 There's a color in the active storms header for severe tropical storms btw, it's ccffff. No one added it in earlier, but I put that in now. 'Ryan1000 23:26, December 5, 2011 (UTC) :::Well if we are going to have a colour for severe tropical storms then why not typhoons, super typhoons, moderate tropical storm, severe tropical cyclones etc.. Yqt1001 23:30, December 5, 2011 (UTC) ::::Down slightly to 60mph. Yqt1001 00:56, December 6, 2011 (UTC) :::::But it could still become a tropical cyclone (category). Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 02:04,12/6/2011 :::::I like that idea and btw love your new sign cyclone 10Allanjeffs 02:44, December 6, 2011 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Alenga What a fail. 13R. '' 09:22, December 6, 2011 (UTC) However, the JTWC have this becoming a Cat 1 TC. ''13R. '' 09:31, December 6, 2011 (UTC) The typhoon colour is the last one that wasn't included in the edit section in the storm template(just added it in), but everything else is there. As far as i'm concerned, this storm won't do anything other than spin fish. Storms like this happen almost all the time here, and Alenga will likely die out without doing any harm. ''Ryan1000 00:01, December 7, 2011 (UTC) JTWC doesn't have Alenga become a Cat 1 TC anymore. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 02:09,12/7/2011 And they didn`t retire name Yasi that is why i never put 100 to a name storm even with all the damaged it caused Allanjeffs 05:36, December 7, 2011 (UTC) Well that was discouraging. I don't know what caused that snub by any means... Will the lack of Yasi's retirement lead up to any future non-retirements? Retirement has gotten more strict apparently, and that's why I didn't want to put 100% to Irene. It wasn't as bad for the U.S. as Yasi was for Australia, and Karl also caused lots of damage last year and wasn't retired. I guess Australia's reputation just collapsed with Yasi's snub. Ryan1000 16:15, December 7, 2011 (UTC) :Yasi is a SPac name, thus he had to be retired by the SPac authorities. He caused no impact in the SPac. Yqt1001 20:40, December 7, 2011 (UTC) ::That's not an excuse as to why it was not retired. Cyclone Erica of 2003 formed in the Australian region and became retired because of it's destruction in New Caledonia in the South Pacific region. If a storm can be retired from the Australian naming lists for it's effects in SPac, I don't see why a storm can't be retired vise versa. Either way, Yasi should have been retired. Ryan1000 21:01, December 7, 2011 (UTC) :::Yasi wasn't retired so far, because of the RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee meets '''only every second year, the '''next time in April 2012. -- 08:34, December 9, 2011 (UTC) Now a Category 2 cyclone on the Oz scale. 13R.KIEWII 12:45, December 7, 2011 (UTC) :Has a ragged eye now too. Also why is this here? Alenga is a SWIO storm and so she should be in that basin... Yqt1001 20:19, December 7, 2011 (UTC) :It crossed 90 degrees east, which is the SWIO-AUS basin border. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 21:31,12/7/2011 Alenga formed in the SWIO basin and it would make things less confusing if we keep it in the basin where it originally formed. In short words, Yqt is right, this storm should stay here. Ryan1000 21:08, December 7, 2011 (UTC) Anyways, JTWC says Alenga is a Category 1 hurricane (Tropical Cyclone). Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 21:31,12/7/2011 Severe Tropical Cyclone Alenga JTWC and BOM has this at Cat 1 hurricane (Cat 3 TC). Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 01:26,12/8/2011 :Then that would be a STC. 13R. '' 01:28, December 8, 2011 (UTC) ::70kts 10-min sustained. Dvorak suggests a category 3 hurricane (1-min of course). Yqt1001 02:18, December 8, 2011 (UTC) :::JTWC has Alenga at 105mph, however now she has lost most of her eye structure, so she has reached her peak. Yqt1001 04:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC) ::::Nope, JTWC keeps this strong, and it looks like it has a really good eye structure. '''Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 13:13,12/8/2011 Tropical Cyclone Alenga It could pull out a Fred! Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 03:40,12/9/2011 Post-Tropical Cyclone Alenga Now officially gone. ''13R. '' 13:00, December 9, 2011 (UTC) 03S.NONAME Subtropical Depression 03 New depression... not expected to become Benilde. —13R. '' 23:24, December 19, 2011 (UTC) Gone already...Cyclone10 21:13, December 20, 2011 (UTC) 04R.NONAME AOI: East of the Chagos New AOI. —13R. ''' 23:30, December 22, 2011 (UTC) Uh....TCFA alert?--Cyclone10 04:22, December 28, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 04 Expected to become Benilde. —''13R. '' 11:22, December 28, 2011 (UTC) Australian Region We could have Bakung (Jakarta) by next week. 13R. '' 20:01, December 2, 2011 (UTC) 01U.ALENGA 99S.INVEST Medium chance. ''13R. '' 15:45, December 3, 2011 (UTC) High chance.Cyclone10 21:19, December 3, 2011 (UTC) I think we're about to begin by now. Anyways, this storm shouldn't affect land. ''Ryan1000 22:11, December 3, 2011 (UTC) Was a tropical low earlier, not now. 13R. '' 21:18, December 4, 2011 (UTC) Now is a tropical cyclone Allanjeffs 03:37, December 5, 2011 (UTC) In SWIO basin. '''Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 04:30,12/5/2011 Now Alenga Allanjeffs 12:28, December 5, 2011 (UTC) 02U.FINA 92P.INVEST Very large area of cloud west of Queensland, due to head south over the next few days. —13R. '' 23:30, December 19, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Low 02U Now a TL. —13R. ''' 09:02, December 20, 2011 (UTC) BoM now has this becoming a C2 TC. —''13R. '' 13:31, December 20, 2011 (UTC) TCFA alert.Cyclone10 01:47, December 21, 2011 (UTC) It has a limited amount of time, wind shear should begin picking up tomorrow. —''13R. '' 02:07, December 21, 2011 (UTC) :Nope. It's supposed to be a TC and hit Darwin on Christmas day. Actually no, that is a another storm. (95S?) Yqt1001 03:02, December 21, 2011 (UTC) ::No 94S. Wind shear is picking up and the BoM only have this getting to Category 1 status. —''13R. '' :::It isn't very common to see storms form off of Queensland at this time of year. I'm surprised we only had one named storm thus far in the SHem, but the 100-degree water off of northern Australia can easily support an explosion for any tropical cyclone by now. The wind shear off of Australia hasn't exactly been in favor of anything just yet, but sometimes these lows hang on for quite a long time before they develop, so don't write them off yet. The SPac's Susan of January 1998 was a tropical disturbance for nearly two two weeks before it exploded into a category 5 cyclone. I don't think 2U or 4U will develop right now, but we should keep our eyes out because like last year, it is still possible for Australia to see a strong cyclone make landfall. Hopefully it won't be as bad as Yasi was though... Ryan1000 14:40, December 21, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Fina We now have Fina. —''13R. '' 18:29, December 21, 2011 (UTC) Our first AUS storm! Andrew444TalkBlog 21:44, December 21, 2011 (UTC) : TCFA canceled due to strengthening wind shear. —''13R. '' 21:50, December 21, 2011 (UTC) ::Yeah it's dead. Yqt1001 22:20, December 21, 2011 (UTC) :::Looks nothing like a TC.--Cyclone10 22:23, December 21, 2011 (UTC) ::::Barely (or none) thunderstorm activity right now.--Cyclone10 01:39, December 22, 2011 (UTC) ::::She is down and out now we just need to wait for Grant Allanjeffs 08:00, December 22, 2011 (UTC Tropical Low Fina No, she is not down and out... she has still got a few hours left. —''13R. '' 08:32, December 22, 2011 (UTC) Remnants of Fina Now gone. —''13R. '' 20:38, December 22, 2011 (UTC) Big fail.--Cyclone10 21:08, December 22, 2011 (UTC) You even doubt it Allanjeffs 16:16, December 23, 2011 (UTC) Subtropical Depression Fina A subtropical depression by RSMC Fiji. —''13R. '' 05:42, December 24, 2011 (UTC) Remnants of Fina (2nd time) Waste of time... —''13R. '' 19:44, December 24, 2011 (UTC) Big fail.--Cyclone10 20:18, December 24, 2011 (UTC) Fina is now at 159E... I expect a SPAC cyclone. —''13R. '' 11:16, December 25, 2011 (UTC) TCWC Wellington will take over the warnings shortly. —''13R. '' 19:10, December 25, 2011 (UTC) 04U.GRANT 94S.INVEST North of Darwin. —''13R. '' 23:30, December 19, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Low 04U I have no idea what happened to 03U. —''13R. '' 12:19, December 21, 2011 (UTC) This may become Grant in the next fey days Allanjeffs 20:34, December 21, 2011 (UTC) : This thing may pull a Tracy. 04U is expected to hit Darwin on Christmas Day. —''13R. '' 23:01, December 21, 2011 (UTC) :: GFS showing this as a Category 4 cyclone with sustained winds of about 110 mph in the Gulf. —''13R. '' 09:42, December 22, 2011 (UTC) :: This tropical low is expected to become Grant on Christmas Eve. Andrew444TalkBlog 13:14, December 23, 2011 (UTC) ::: BOM expects a C2 cyclone.--Cyclone10 22:14, December 23, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Grant Finally. —''13R. '' 19:33, December 24, 2011 (UTC) : I think Tracy is seriously overexaggerating. When Darwin was rebuilt after Tracy hit 37 years ago, they built it much better and if a storm like Tracy struck again today, it wouldn't do anywhere close to as much damage. The only reason Tracy did that much damage was because she snuck up on them overnight on Christmas Eve in 1974. Tracy was initially forecast to miss Darwin, but by the time the residents of the city heard she changed course, it was too late. Queensland's coast is also being built to last future storms, after Yasi tore them up last year. Australia may never see a storm as destructive as Tracy or Yasi again, or they won't for a very long time. Still, Grant is worth watching. Ryan1000 20:51, December 24, 2011 (UTC) :: TCFA alert...Merry Christmas to everyone.--Cyclone10 01:07, December 25, 2011 (UTC) ::: Now JTWC monitors Grant as a TC.--Cyclone10 04:20, December 25, 2011 (UTC) We now have a Category 2 cyclone. This will make landfall sometime tomorrow UTC. However, I am forecasting a regeneration in the Gulf. —''13R. '' 11:17, December 25, 2011 (UTC) : Grant won't be that bad for them, and even so, if it does regenerate in the GOC (Gulf of Carpentaria), it likely won't become very strong there. The track map speeds it up signifigantly over there by Tuesday. If it stalls or slows down in the Gulf, then we have a problem on our hands. It will most likely just bring some rain to Australia, though it's not really needed in Queensland... Ryan1000 11:59, December 25, 2011 (UTC) :: Well..GFS expecting a Cat 3 landfall in the Gulf. —''13R. '' 12:07, December 25, 2011 (UTC) ::: The storm should be weakening soon, according to the forecast track. Andrew444TalkBlog 17:12, December 25, 2011 (UTC) :::: It is, JTWC have it down to 35 kts. —''13R. '' 17:51, December 25, 2011 (UTC) ::::: Down to a C1.--Cyclone10 01:25, December 26, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Low Grant Down to a tropical low. BoM now forecasting Grant to become a TC in the Gulf. —''13R. '' 12:00, December 26, 2011 (UTC) Last advisory by JTWC...--Cyclone10 03:26, December 27, 2011 (UTC) :Still forecast to emerge over Gulf of Carpentaria and strengthen there. Nice to see the tropics heating up again/ Yqt1001 16:04, December 27, 2011 (UTC) ::TCFA alert.--Cyclone10 21:46, December 27, 2011 (UTC) 95S.INVEST 95S.INVEST South of Jakarta. —''13R. '' 14:21, December 20, 2011 (UTC) : Benilde or Fina maybe? Ryan1000 14:43, December 21, 2011 (UTC) :: Fina has been named. If it develops, it would have to be Grant.--Cyclone10 22:57, December 21, 2011 (UTC) ::: Now it would have to be Heidi.--Cyclone10 20:33, December 24, 2011 (UTC) South Pacific Region 95P.INVEST (01F) Already called Tropical Disturbance 01F.Cyclone10Talk 00:39, November 14, 2011 (UTC) Yay! Our first SHEM disturbance! I expect it to become "Tropical Depression 01F" soon. Andrew444 (Talk) ( ) 15:42, November 14, 2011 (UTC) Medium chance.Cyclone10Talk 20:45, November 14, 2011 (UTC) No changes in organization.Cyclone10Talk 02:24, November 15, 2011 (UTC) There's still a lot of shear in the SHem now; the season has barely begun. We could see a named storm of two in the rest of November or December, but by January/February, the Shem really starts to heat up. I think we will have a more active SHem season this year than last year, but I don't know where most of the activity will be. The SWIO could use an extra storm or two in this year's upcoming season. Ryan1000 01:56, November 16, 2011 (UTC) Long gone.Cyclone10 00:54, November 27, 2011 (UTC)